Posted Oct 12 2021
The AI Vignettes Project is an ongoing effort to write concrete plausible future histories of AI development and its social impacts.
We hope to:
- Check that abstract views about the future of AI have plausible concrete instantiations. (Especially, hypothesized extinction scenarios, and proposed safe scenarios.)
- Develop better intuitions about possible scenarios by thinking through them concretely.
- Notice recurring themes in concrete stories, that may be worth thinking about more broadly.
- Fill out the space of plausible feasible scenarios with concrete illustrations, to decrease bias in thinking about the future.
- Keep a collection of AI vignettes for others to use, in the above or other ways.
Our current intended method is:
- Write draft vignettes, with no particular systematic method for choosing an unbiased selection of scenarios
- Request comments on their realism
- Modify according to comments
- Repeat 2-3 until realism critiques subside
Work so far
AI Impacts has run two small workshops where participants wrote AI vignettes.
This is a subset of vignettes arising from this project, or similar.