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AI Timelines

Computing hardware performance data collections

This is a list of public datasets that we know of containing either measured or theoretical performance numbers for computer processors. List Top 500 maintains a list of the top 500 supercomputers, updated every six

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AI Timeline Surveys

2016 ESPAI Narrow AI task forecast timeline

This is an interactive timeline we made, illustrating the median dates when respondents said they expected a 10%, 50% and 90% chance of different tasks being automatable, in the 2016 Expert Survey on progress in

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AI Timeline Surveys

Automation of music production

Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036. Contents DetailsEvidence from survey dataSummary resultsDistributions of answers to Taylor question Details Evidence from survey data In the 2016

Arguments for AI risk

Stuart Russell’s description of AI risk

Stuart Russell has argued that advanced AI poses a risk, because it will have the ability to make high quality decisions, yet may not share human values perfectly. Details Stuart Russell describes a risk from

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AI hopes and fears in numbers

By Katja Grace, 28 June 2017 People often wonder what AI researchers think about AI risk. A good collection of quotes can tell us that worry about AI is no longer a fringe view: many big names are concerned. But

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AI Timeline Surveys

2016 ESPAI questions printout

This is a list of questions from the 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. Details This page is a printout of questions from the 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI provided by the

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AI Timeline Surveys

Media discussion of 2016 ESPAI

The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI was discussed in at least 20 media outlets, popular blogs, and industry-specific sites that we know of. Most of them were summaries of the survey findings. Commonly

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Some survey results!

By Katja Grace, 8 June 2017 We put the main results of our survey of machine learning researchers on AI timelines online recently—see here for the paper. Apologies for the delay—we are trying to avoid spoiling the newsworthiness of the