Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036.
Evidence from survey data
In the 2016 ESPAI, participants were asked two relevant questions:
[Top forty] Compose a song that is good enough to reach the US Top 40. The system should output the complete song as an audio file.
[Taylor] Produce a song that is indistinguishable from a new song by a particular artist, e.g. a song that experienced listeners can’t distinguish from a new song by Taylor Swift.
Answers were as follows, suggesting these milestones are likely to be reached in ten years, and quite likely to be reached in twenty years.
|10 years||20 years||50 years|
|Top forty||5 years||10 years||20 years|
|Taylor||5 years||10 years||20 years|
Distributions of answers to Taylor question
The three figures below show how respondents were spread between different answers over time, for the respondents who answered the ‘fixed years’ framing.