AI Timelines

Resolutions of mathematical conjectures over time

Conditioned on being remembered as a notable conjecture, the time-to-proof for a mathematical problem appears to be exponentially distributed with a half-life of about 100 years. However, these observations are likely to be distorted by

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Progress in general purpose factoring

The largest number factored to date grew by about 4.5 decimal digits per year over the past roughly half-century. Between 1988, when we first have good records, and 2009, when the largest number to date was factored, progress was

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AI Timelines

Trends in algorithmic progress

Algorithmic progress has been estimated to contribute fifty to one hundred percent as much as hardware progress to overall performance progress, with low confidence. Algorithmic improvements appear to be relatively incremental. Details We have not recently examined this topic carefully