No Picture
AI Timeline Surveys

Etzioni 2016 survey

Oren Etzioni surveyed 193 AAAI fellows in 2016 and found that 67% of them expected that ‘we will achieve Superintelligence’ someday, but in more than 25 years. Details Oren Etzioni, CEO of the Allen Institute

No Picture
AI Timeline Surveys

AGI-11 Survey

The AGI-11 survey was a survey of 60 participants at the AGI-11 conference. In it: Nearly half of respondents believed that AGI would appear before 2030. Nearly 90% of respondents believed that AGI would appear

No Picture
Accuracy of AI Predictions

Chance date bias

There is modest evidence that people consistently forecast events later when asked the probability that the event occurs by a certain year, rather than the year in which a certain probability of the event will

No Picture
AI Timeline Surveys

Automation of music production

Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036. Details Evidence from survey data In the 2016 ESPAI, participants were asked two relevant questions: [Top forty] Compose a

No Picture
AI Timeline Surveys

2016 ESPAI questions printout

This page is a printout of the survey questions provided by the Qualtrics website as a word document, and then copied here, for searchability. It contains formatting differences with the survey as received by participants, and probably

No Picture
AI Timeline Surveys

Media discussion of 2016 ESPAI

The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI was discussed in at least 20 media outlets, popular blogs, and industry-specific sites that we know of. Most of them were summaries of the survey findings. Commonly

AI Timeline Surveys

2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI

The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of machine learning researchers that AI Impacts ran in collaboration with others in 2016. Details Some survey results are reported in When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?

No Picture
AI Timeline Surveys

Concrete AI tasks for forecasting

This page contains a list of relatively well specified AI tasks designed for forecasting. Currently all entries were used in the 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. List Translate a text written in a newly discovered language

No Picture
AI Timeline Surveys

AI Timeline Surveys

We know of thirteen surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of ‘human-level AI’, then: Median estimates for when there will be a 10% chance of human-level AI are all in the