AI Timeline Surveys

2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI

Published June 2016; last substantial update before Oct 2017 The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of machine learning researchers that Katja Grace and John Salvatier of AI Impacts ran in

Concrete AI tasks for forecasting

This page contains a list of relatively well specified AI tasks designed for forecasting. Currently all entries were used in the 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. List Translate a text written in a newly discovered language

This page is out-of-date. Visit the updated version of this page on our wiki. Published 10 January 2015 We know of twelve surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of

Michie Survey

In a 1972 poll of sixty-seven AI and computer science experts, respondents were roughly divided between expecting human-level intelligence in 20 years, in 50 years and in more than 50 years. They were also roughly divided between considering a ‘takeover’

AGI-09 Survey

Baum et al. surveyed 21 attendees of the AGI-09 conference, on AGI timelines with and without extra funding. They also asked about other details of AGI development such as social impacts, and promising approaches. Their findings include the following:

Bainbridge Survey

A survey of twenty-six technology experts in 2005 produced a median of 2085 as the year in which artificial intelligence would be able to functionally replicate a human brain (p344). They rated this application 5.6/10 in beneficialness to

AI@50 Survey

A seemingly informal seven-question poll was taken of participants at the AI@50 conference in 2006. 41% of respondents said it would take more than 50 years for AI to simulate every aspect of human intelligence, and 41%

FHI Winter Intelligence Survey

The Future of Humanity Institute administered a survey in 2011 at their Winter Intelligence AGI impacts conference. Participants’ median estimate for a 50% chance of human-level AI was 2050. Details AI timelines question The survey included

Hanson AI Expert Survey

In a small informal survey running since 2012, AI researchers generally estimated that their subfields have moved less than ten percent of the way to human-level intelligence. Only one (in the slowest moving subfield) observed acceleration.

Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll

Vincent Müller and Nick Bostrom of FHI conducted a poll of four groups of AI experts in 2012-13. Combined, the median date by which they gave a 10% chance of human-level AI was 2022, and the