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Historical Continuity of Progress

Methodology for Discontinuous Progress Investigation

AI Impacts’ discontinuous project investigation was conducted according to methodology outlined on this page. Details Contributions to the discontinuous progress investigation were made over at least 2015-2019, by a number of different people, and methods

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Returns to scale in research

When universities or university departments produce research outputs—such as published papers—they sometimes experience increasing returns to scale, sometimes constant returns to scale, and sometimes decreasing returns to scale. At the level of nations however, R&D

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Cases of Discontinuous Technological Progress

We have verified three technological trends which underwent a discontinuous jump in improvement equivalent to more than several decades at previous rates. These are relative effectiveness of explosives, temperature of superconductivity and building height. We have verified two more