Continuity of progress

Incomplete case studies of discontinuous progress

This is a list of potential cases of discontinuous technological progress that we have partially investigated. List In the course of investigating cases of potentially discontinuous technological progress, we have collected around fifty suggested instances

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Continuity of progress

Historic trends in transatlantic message speed

The speed of delivering a short message across the Atlantic Ocean saw at least three discontinuities of more than ten years before 1929, all of which also were more than one thousand years: a 1465-year

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Continuity of progress

Historic trends in long-range military payload delivery

The speed at which a military payload could cross the Atlantic ocean contained six greater than 10-year discontinuities in 1493 and between 1841 and 1957: Date Mode of transport Knots Discontinuity size(years of progress at

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Continuity of progress

Historic trends in bridge span length

We measure eight discontinuities of over ten years in the history of longest bridge spans, four of them of over one hundred years, five of them robust as to slight changes in trend extrapolation. The

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Continuity of progress

Historic trends in light intensity

Maximum light intensity of artificial light sources has discontinuously increased once that we know of: argon flashes represented roughly 1000 years of progress at past rates. Annual growth in light intensity increased from an average

Continuity of progress

Historic trends in slow light technology

Group index of light appears to have seen discontinuities of 22 years in 1995 from Coherent Population Trapping (CPT) and 37 years in 1999 from EIT (condensate). Pulse delay of light over a short distance

Continuity of progress

Penicillin and historic syphilis trends

Penicillin did not precipitate a discontinuity of more than ten years in deaths from syphilis in the US. Nor were there other discontinuities in that trend between 1916 and 2015. The number of syphilis cases

Continuity of progress

Historic trends in ship size

Trends for ship tonnage (builder’s old measurement) and ship displacement for Royal Navy first rate line-of-battle ships saw eleven and six discontinuities of between ten and one hundred years respectively during the period 1637-1876, if

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Continuity of progress

Historic trends in transatlantic passenger travel

The speed of human travel across the Atlantic Ocean has seen at least seven discontinuities of more than ten years’ progress at past rates, two of which represented more than one hundred years’ progress at