Uncategorized – Page 2

Penicillin and historic syphilis trends

Penicillin did not precipitate a discontinuity of more than ten years in deaths from syphilis in the US. Nor were there other discontinuities in that trend between 1916 and 2015. The number of syphilis cases

AI conference attendance

Six of the largest seven AI conferences hosted a total of 27,396 attendees in 2018. Attendance at these conferences has grown by an average of 21% per year over 2011-2018. These six conferences host around six

Examples of AI systems producing unconventional solutions

This page lists examples of AI systems producing solutions of an unexpected nature, whether due to goal misspecification or successful optimization. This list is highly incomplete. List CoastRunners’ burning boat Incomprehensible evolved logic gates AlphaGo’s

Chance date bias

There is modest evidence that people consistently forecast events later when asked the probability that the event occurs by a certain year, rather than the year in which a certain probability of the event will

What do ML researchers think you are wrong about?

By Katja Grace, 25 September 2017 So, maybe you are concerned about AI risk. And maybe you are concerned that many people making AI are not concerned enough about it. Or not concerned about the

Changes in funding in the AI safety field

Guest post by Seb Farquhar, originally posted to the Center for Effective Altruism blog. 20 February 2017 The field of AI Safety has been growing quickly over the last three years, since the publication of

Joscha Bach on remaining steps to human-level AI

By Katja Grace, 29 November 2016 Last year John and I had an interesting discussion with Joscha Bach about what ingredients of human-level artificial intelligence we seem to be missing, and how to improve AI forecasts more generally. Thanks

Selected Citations

This page is out-of-date. Visit the updated version of this page on our wiki. A non-exhaustive collection of places where AI Impacts’ work has been cited. AI Timelines Muehlhauser, Luke. 2015. “What Do We Know

Error in Armstrong and Sotala 2012

By Katja Grace, 17 May 2016 Can AI researchers say anything useful about when strong AI will arrive? Back in 2012, Stuart Armstrong and Kaj Sotala weighed in on this question in a paper called ‘How We’re

Metasurvey: predict the predictors

By Katja Grace, 12 May 2016 As I mentioned earlier, we’ve been making a survey for AI researchers. The survey asks when AI will be able to do things like build a lego kit according to the instructions, be a surgeon, or radically