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The history of geoengineering, nuclear power, and human challenge trials suggest that social norms and regulation exert powerful forces on the use of technology.

Chaos theory allows us to rigorously show that there are ceilings on our abilities to make some prediction. This post introduces an investigation which explores the relationship between chaos and intelligence in more detail.

The uncertainty in the location of the pinball grows by a factor of about 5 every time the ball collides with one of the disks. After 12 bounces, an initial uncertainty in position the size of an atom grows to be as large as the disks themselves. Since you cannot measure the location of a pinball with more than atom-scale precision, it is in principle impossible to predict the motion of a pinball as it bounces between the disks for more than 12 bounces.

Birds see magnetic fields using quantum mechanical spin states in their retina. Whole Bird Emulation requires much higher resolution than you might expect.

AI’s relationship with us will not be like our relationship with ants

18 or so reasons to reflexively dismiss slowing down AI and why I think they fail and leave it worth thinking seriously about.

If you ask people a bunch of specific doomy questions, and their answers are suspiciously correlated, they might be expressing their p(Doom) for each question instead of answering the questions individually. Using a general factor of doom is unlikely to be an accurate depiction of reality. The future is likely to be surprisingly doomy in some ways and surprisingly tractable in others.