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You Can’t Predict a Game of Pinball

The uncertainty in the location of the pinball grows by a factor of about 5 every time the ball collides with one of the disks. After 12 bounces, an initial uncertainty in position the size of an atom grows to be as large as the disks themselves. Since you cannot measure the location of a pinball with more than atom-scale precision, it is in principle impossible to predict the motion of a pinball as it bounces between the disks for more than 12 bounces.

Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”

Patrick Levermore, 1 March 2023 Summary This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, analyses the predictions on ‘Narrow tasks’, and gives a Brier score to

The public supports regulating AI for safety

Some survey data

Whole Bird Emulation requires Quantum Mechanics

Birds see magnetic fields using quantum mechanical spin states in their retina. Whole Bird Emulation requires much higher resolution than you might expect.

We don’t trade with ants

AI’s relationship with us will not be like our relationship with ants

Let’s think about slowing down AI

18 or so reasons to reflexively dismiss slowing down AI and why I think they fail and leave it worth thinking seriously about.

Against a General Factor of Doom

If you ask people a bunch of specific doomy questions, and their answers are suspiciously correlated, they might be expressing their p(Doom) for each question instead of answering the questions individually. Using a general factor of doom is unlikely to be an accurate depiction of reality. The future is likely to be surprisingly doomy in some ways and surprisingly tractable in others.