AI Timelines

Historical economic growth trends

An analysis of historical growth supports the possibility of radical increases in growth rate. Naive extrapolation of long-term trends would suggest massive increases in growth rate over the coming century, although growth over the last

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Interpreting AI compute trends

This is a guest post by Ryan Carey, 10 July 2018. Over the last few years, we know that AI experiments have used much more computation than previously. But just last month, an investigation by

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The tyranny of the god scenario

By Michael Wulfsohn, 6 April 2018 I was convinced. An intelligence explosion would result in the sudden arrival of a superintelligent machine. Its abilities would far exceed those of humans in ways we can’t imagine

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Continuity of progress

Historic trends in altitude

Published 7 Feb 2020 Altitude of objects attained by man-made means has seen six discontinuities of more than ten years of progress at previous rates since 1783, shown below. Year Height (m) Discontinuity (years) Entity

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AI Timeline Surveys

Media discussion of 2016 ESPAI

The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI was discussed in at least 20 media outlets, popular blogs, and industry-specific sites that we know of. Most of them were summaries of the survey findings. Commonly

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Some survey results!

By Katja Grace, 8 June 2017 We put the main results of our survey of machine learning researchers on AI timelines online recently—see here for the paper. Apologies for the delay—we are trying to avoid spoiling the newsworthiness of the

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Changes in funding in the AI safety field

Guest post by Seb Farquhar, originally posted to the Center for Effective Altruism blog. 20 February 2017 The field of AI Safety has been growing quickly over the last three years, since the publication of