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Friendly AI as a global public good

By Katja Grace, 8 August 2016 A public good, in the economic sense, can be (roughly) characterized as a desirable good that is likely to be undersupplied, or not supplied at all, by private companies.

Error in Armstrong and Sotala 2012

By Katja Grace, 17 May 2016 Can AI researchers say anything useful about when strong AI will arrive? Back in 2012, Stuart Armstrong and Kaj Sotala weighed in on this question in a paper called ‘How We’re

Metasurvey: predict the predictors

By Katja Grace, 12 May 2016 As I mentioned earlier, we’ve been making a survey for AI researchers. The survey asks when AI will be able to do things like build a lego kit according to the instructions, be a surgeon, or radically

Concrete AI tasks bleg

By Katja Grace, 30 March 2016 We’re making a survey. I hope to write soon about our general methods and plans, so anyone kind enough to criticize them has the chance. Before that though, we have a different request: we want a list

Mysteries of global hardware

By Katja Grace, 7 March 2016 This blog post summarizes recent research on our Global Computing Capacity page. See that page for full citations and detailed reasoning. We recently investigated this intriguing puzzle: FLOPS (then) apparently performed by all of the world’s computing

Recently at AI Impacts

By Katja Grace, 24 November 2015 We’ve been working on a few longer term projects lately, so here’s an update in the absence of regular page additions. New researchers Stephanie Zolayvar and John Salvatier have recently joined us,

AI timelines and strategies

AI Impacts sometimes invites guest posts from fellow thinkers on the future of AI. These are not intended to relate closely to our current research, nor to necessarily reflect our views. However we think they are worthy contributions to the discussion of AI forecasting and strategy. This