Pages – Page 10 – AI Impacts

Price-performance trend in top supercomputers

A top supercomputer can perform a GFLOP for around $3, in 2017. The price of performance in top supercomputers continues to fall, as of 2016. Details TOP500.org maintains a list of top supercomputers and their

Computing hardware performance data collections

This is a list of public datasets that we know of containing either measured or theoretical performance numbers for computer processors. List Top 500 maintains a list of the top 500 supercomputers, updated every six

2016 ESPAI Narrow AI task forecast timeline

This is an interactive timeline we made, illustrating the median dates when respondents said they expected a 10%, 50% and 90% chance of different tasks being automatable, in the 2016 Expert Survey on progress in

Automation of music production

Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036. Details Evidence from survey data In the 2016 ESPAI, participants were asked two relevant questions: [Top forty] Compose a

Stuart Russell’s description of AI risk

Stuart Russell has argued that advanced AI poses a risk, because it will have the ability to make high quality decisions, yet may not share human values perfectly. Details Stuart Russell describes a risk from

2016 ESPAI questions printout

This is a list of questions from the 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. Details This page is a printout of questions from the 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI provided by the

Media discussion of 2016 ESPAI

The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI was discussed in at least 20 media outlets, popular blogs, and industry-specific sites that we know of. Most of them were summaries of the survey findings. Commonly

Guide to pages on AI timeline predictions

This page is an informal outline of the other pages on this site about AI timeline predictions made by others. Headings link to higher level pages, intended to summarize the evidence from pages below them. This list was complete on 7 April 2017 (here is

Progress in general purpose factoring

The largest number factored to date grew by about 4.5 decimal digits per year over the past roughly half-century. Between 1988, when we first have good records, and 2009, when the largest number to date was factored, progress was

Trends in algorithmic progress

Algorithmic progress has been estimated to contribute fifty to one hundred percent as much as hardware progress to overall performance progress, with low confidence. Algorithmic improvements appear to be relatively incremental. Details We have not recently examined this topic carefully