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Investigation into the relationship between neuron count and intelligence across differing cortical architectures

Survey participants (n = 83) were given anonymized descriptions of behavior in the wild for four animals: one bird species and one primate species with a similar neuron count, and one bird species and one

Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project

According to experience and data from the Good Judgment Project, the following are associated with successful forecasting, in rough decreasing order of combined importance and confidence: Past performance in the same broad domain Making more

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in diabetic retinopathy

In diabetic retinopathy, automated systems started out just below expert human level performance, and took around ten years to reach expert human level performance. Details Diabetic retinopathy is a complication of diabetes in which the back

AGI-11 survey

The AGI-11 survey was a survey of 60 participants at the AGI-11 conference. In it: Nearly half of respondents believed that AGI would appear before 2030. Nearly 90% of respondents believed that AGI would appear

Hardware overhang

Hardware overhang refers to a situation where large quantities of computing hardware can be diverted to running powerful AI systems as soon as the software is developed. Details Definition In the context of AI forecasting, hardware overhang refers

Historic trends in structure heights

Trends for tallest ever structure heights, tallest ever freestanding structure heights, tallest existing freestanding structure heights, and tallest ever building heights have each seen 5-8 discontinuities of more than ten years. These are: Djoser and

AI Impacts

Investigation into the relationship between neuron count and intelligence across differing cortical architectures

Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in diabetic retinopathy

AGI-11 survey

Hardware overhang

Historic trends in structure heights

Trend in compute used in training for headline AI results

Promising research projects

Transmitting fibers in the brain: Total length and distribution of lengths

Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI