Index of articles about hardware

We know of around 1,300 public predictions of when human-level AI will arrive, of varying levels of quality. These include predictions from individual statements and larger surveys. Median predictions tend to be between 2030 and 2055 …

It is unclear how informative we should expect expert predictions about AI timelines to be. Individual predictions are undoubtedly often off by many decades, since they disagree with each other. However their aggregate may still be quite informative. The main potential reason we …

AGI researchers appear to expect human-level AI substantially sooner than other AI researchers. The difference ranges from about five years to at least about sixty years as we move from highest percentiles of optimism to the lowest. Futurists appear to be around …