AI Timelines – Page 6

Group Differences in AI Predictions

Updated 9 November 2020 In 2015 AGI researchers appeared to expect human-level AI substantially sooner than other AI researchers. The difference ranges from about five years to at least about sixty years as we move

The Maes-Garreau Law

The Maes-Garreau law posits that people tend to predict exciting future technologies toward the end of their lifetimes. It probably does not hold for predictions of human-level AI. Clarification From Wikipedia: The Maes–Garreau law is the statement that “most favorable

AI Timeline predictions in surveys and statements

Surveys seem to produce median estimates of time to human-level AI which are roughly a decade later than those produced from voluntary public statements. Details We compared several surveys to predictions made by similar groups of

MIRI AI Predictions Dataset

The MIRI AI predictions dataset is a collection of public predictions about human-level AI timelines. We edited the original dataset, as described below. Our dataset is available here, and the original here. Interesting features of the dataset

Brain performance in TEPS

Traversed Edges Per Second (TEPS) is a benchmark for measuring a computer’s ability to communicate information internally. Given several assumptions, we can also estimate the human brain’s communication performance in terms of TEPS, and use this

Glial Signaling

The presence of glial cells may increase the capacity for signaling in the brain by a small factor, but is unlikely to qualitatively change the nature or extent of signaling in the brain. Support Number

Scale of the Human Brain

The brain has about 10¹¹ neurons and 1.8-3.2 x 10¹⁴ synapses. These probably account for the majority of computationally interesting behavior. Support Number of neurons in the brain The number of neurons in the brain is about 10¹¹. For

Neuron firing rates in humans

Our best guess is that an average neuron in the human brain transmits a spike about 0.1-2 times per second. Support Bias from neurons with sparse activity When researchers measure neural activity, they can fail to see neurons

Metabolic Estimates of Rate of Cortical Firing

Cortical neurons are estimated to spike around 0.16 times per second, based on the amount of energy consumed by the human neocortex. They seem unlikely to spike much more than once per second on average, based on this

Current FLOPS prices

In November 2017, we estimate the price for one GFLOPS to be between $0.03 and $3 for single or double precision performance, using GPUs (therefore excluding some applications). Amortized over three years, this is $1.1