AI Timelines – Page 7

The cost of TEPS

A billion Traversed Edges Per Second (a GTEPS) can be bought for around $0.26/hour via a powerful supercomputer, including hardware and energy costs only. We do not know if GTEPS can be bought more cheaply elsewhere. We estimate that

Allen, The Singularity Isn’t Near

The Singularity Isn’t Near is an article in MIT Technology Review by Paul Allen which argues that a singularity brought about by super-human-level AI will not arrive by 2045 (as is predicted by Kurzweil). The summarized argument

Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near

The Singularity Is Near is a book by Ray Kurzweil. It argues that a technological singularity will occur in around 2045. This appears to be largely based on extrapolation from hardware in combination with a guess for how

Wikipedia history of GFLOPS costs

This is a list from Wikipedia, showing hardware configurations that authors claim perform efficiently, along with their prices per GFLOPS at different times in recent history. In it, prices generally fall at around an order of magnitude every five years, and

Trends in the cost of computing

Posted 10 Mar 2015 Computing power available per dollar has probably increased by a factor of ten roughly every four years over the last quarter of a century (measured in FLOPS or MIPS). Over the past 6-8 years, the

Discontinuous progress investigation

Published Feb 2, 2015; last substantially updated April 12 2020 We have collected cases of discontinuous technological progress to inform our understanding of whether artificial intelligence performance is likely to undergo such a discontinuity. This page

List of Analyses of Time to Human-Level AI

This is a list of most of the substantial analyses of AI timelines that we know of. It also covers most of the arguments and opinions of which we are aware. Details The list below contains substantial

AI Timeline Surveys

This page is out-of-date. Visit the updated version of this page on our wiki. Published 10 January 2015 We know of twelve surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few slightly different meanings of

Michie Survey

In a 1972 poll of sixty-seven AI and computer science experts, respondents were roughly divided between expecting human-level intelligence in 20 years, in 50 years and in more than 50 years. They were also roughly divided between considering a ‘takeover’

AGI-09 Survey

Baum et al. surveyed 21 attendees of the AGI-09 conference, on AGI timelines with and without extra funding. They also asked about other details of AGI development such as social impacts, and promising approaches. Their findings include the following: