There is modest evidence that people consistently forecast events later when asked the probability that the event occurs by a certain year, rather than the year in which a certain probability of the event will
This is an interactive timeline we made, illustrating the median dates when respondents said they expected a 10%, 50% and 90% chance of different tasks being automatable, in the 2016 Expert Survey on progress in
Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036. Details Evidence from survey data In the 2016 ESPAI, participants were asked two relevant questions: [Top forty] Compose a
The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of machine learning researchers that AI Impacts ran in collaboration with others in 2016. Details Some survey results are reported in When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?