AI Timelines

Discontinuous progress investigation

We have collected cases of discontinuous technological progress to inform our understanding of whether artificial intelligence performance is likely to undergo such a discontinuity. This page details our investigation. We know of ten events that produced

No Picture
AI Timelines

List of Analyses of Time to Human-Level AI

This is a list of most of the substantial analyses of AI timelines that we know of. It also covers most of the arguments and opinions of which we are aware. Details The list below contains substantial

No Picture
AI Timeline Surveys

AI Timeline Surveys

[This page is out of date and will be updated soon. It does not reflect all surveys known and documented by AI Impacts.] We know of thirteen surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few

No Picture
Featured Articles

Cases of Discontinuous Technological Progress

We know of ten events which produced a robust discontinuity in progress equivalent to more than one hundred years at previous rates in some interesting metric. We know of 53 other events which produced smaller

No Picture
Continuity of progress

Effect of nuclear weapons on historic trends in explosives

Nuclear weapons constituted a ~7 thousand year discontinuity in relative effectiveness factor (TNT equivalent per kg of explosive). Nuclear weapons do not appear to have clearly represented progress in the cost-effectiveness of explosives, though the

No Picture
AI Timeline Surveys

Hanson AI Expert Survey

In a small informal survey running since 2012, AI researchers generally estimated that their subfields have moved less than ten percent of the way to human-level intelligence. Only one (in the slowest moving subfield) observed acceleration.

No Picture
Clarifying concepts

Human-Level AI

‘Human-level AI’ refers to AI which can reproduce everything a human can do, approximately. Several variants of this concept are worth distinguishing. Details Variations in the meaning of ‘human-level AI’ Considerations in specifying ‘human-level AI’ more precisely: