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AI Timeline Surveys

Hanson AI Expert Survey

In a small informal survey running since 2012, AI researchers generally estimated that their subfields have moved less than ten percent of the way to human-level intelligence. Only one (in the slowest moving subfield) observed acceleration.

Clarifying concepts

Human-Level AI

Published 23 January 2014, last updated Aug 7 2022 ‘Human-level AI’┬árefers to AI which can reproduce everything a human can do, approximately. Several variants of this concept are worth distinguishing. Details Variations in the meaning