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AI Timelines

Brain performance in TEPS

Traversed Edges Per Second (TEPS) is a benchmark for measuring a computer’s ability to communicate information internally. Given several assumptions, we can also estimate the human brain’s communication performance in terms of TEPS, and use this

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AI Timelines

The cost of TEPS

A billion Traversed Edges Per Second (a GTEPS) can be bought for around $0.26/hour via a powerful supercomputer, including hardware and energy costs only. We do not know if GTEPS can be bought more cheaply elsewhere. We estimate that

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AI Timelines

Trends in the cost of computing

Computing power available per dollar has probably increased by a factor of ten roughly every four years over the last quarter of a century (measured in FLOPS or MIPS). Over the past 6-8 years, the rate has been slower:

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Featured Articles

Research topic: Hardware, software and AI

This is the first in a sequence of articles outlining research which could help forecast AI development. Interpretation Concrete research projects are in boxes. ∑5 ∆8  means we guess the project will take (very) roughly five hours, and we rate its value (very)

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Featured Articles

List of multipolar research projects

This list currently consists of research projects suggested at the Multipolar AI workshop we held on January 26 2015. Relatively concrete projects are marked [concrete]. These are more likely to already include specific questions to answer and feasible methods to answer them

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AI Timelines

Discontinuous progress investigation

This page is in the process of being revised to account for new research. Its present contents may be out of date. We are collecting cases of discontinuous technological progress, to inform our understanding of whether artificial

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AI Timeline Surveys

AI Timeline Surveys

[This page is out of date and will be updated soon. It does not reflect all surveys known and documented by AI Impacts.] We know of thirteen surveys on the predicted timing of human-level AI. If we collapse a few

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Featured Articles

Cases of Discontinuous Technological Progress

We have verified three technological trends which underwent a discontinuous jump in improvement equivalent to more than several decades at previous rates. These are relative effectiveness of explosives, temperature of superconductivity and building height. We have verified two more