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What’s up with nuclear weapons?

When nuclear weapons were first built, the explosive power you could extract from a tonne of explosive skyrocketed. But why? Here’s a guess. Until nuclear weapons, explosives were based on chemical reactions. Whereas nuclear weapons are based on nuclear

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Research problems

Possible Empirical Investigations

In the course of our work, we have noticed a number of empirical questions which bear on our forecasts and might be (relatively) cheap to resolve. In the future we hope to address some of

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Featured Articles

Research topic: Hardware, software and AI

This is the first in a sequence of articles outlining research which could help forecast AI development. Interpretation Concrete research projects are in boxes. ∑5 ∆8  means we guess the project will take (very) roughly five hours, and we rate its value (very)

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Multipolar research questions

The Multipolar AI workshop we ran a fortnight ago went well, and we just put up a list of research projects from it. I hope this is helpful inspiration to those of you thinking about applying to the new FLI grants in the

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Featured Articles

List of multipolar research projects

This list currently consists of research projects suggested at the Multipolar AI workshop we held on January 26 2015. Relatively concrete projects are marked [concrete]. These are more likely to already include specific questions to answer and feasible methods to answer them

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How AI timelines are estimated

A natural approach to informing oneself about when human-level AI will arrive is to check what experts who have already investigated the question say about it. So we made this list of analyses that we could find. It’s a short list, though the bar for ‘analysis’ was

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Penicillin and syphilis

Penicillin was a hugely important discovery. But was it a discontinuity in the normal progression of research, or just an excellent discovery which followed a slightly less excellent discovery, and so on? There are several

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AI Timelines

Discontinuous progress investigation

We are collecting cases of discontinuous technological progress, to inform our understanding of whether artificial intelligence research is likely to undergo such a discontinuity. This page details our investigation. Details Motivations We are interested in whether artificial intelligence research