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Mysteries of global hardware

By Katja Grace, 7 March 2016 This blog post summarizes recent research on our Global Computing Capacity page. See that page for full citations and detailed reasoning. We recently investigated this intriguing puzzle: FLOPS (then) apparently performed by all of the world’s computing

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AI Timelines

Global computing capacity

[This page is out of date and its contents may have been inaccurate in 2015, in light of new information that we are yet to integrate. See Computing capacity of all GPUs and TPUs for a related

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AI Control

Coordinated human action as example of superhuman intelligence

Collections of humans organized into groups and institutions provide many historical examples of the creation and attempted control of intelligences that routinely outperform individual humans. A preliminary look at the available evidence suggests that individuals

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Recently at AI Impacts

By Katja Grace, 24 November 2015 We’ve been working on a few longer term projects lately, so here’s an update in the absence of regular page additions. Contents New researchersAI progress surveyAI researcher interviewsBounty submissionsGlossary New researchers

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Featured Articles

Glossary of AI Risk Terminology and common AI terms

Contents TermsAAI timelineArtificial General Intelligence (also, AGI)Artificial Intelligence (also, AI)Associative value accretionAnthropic captureAnthropic reasoningAugmentationBBackpropagationBoxingCCapability control methodsCognitive enhancementCollective superintelligenceComputationThe common good principleCrucial considerationDDecisive strategic advantageDirect specificationDomesticityEEmulation modulationEvolutionary selection approach to value learningExistential riskFFeatureFirst principal-agent problemGGenieHHardware overhangHuman-level

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AI timelines and strategies

AI Impacts sometimes invites guest posts from fellow thinkers on the future of AI. These are not intended to relate closely to our current research, nor to necessarily reflect our views. However we think they are worthy contributions to the discussion of AI forecasting and strategy. This

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Introducing research bounties

By Katja Grace, 7 August 2015 Sometimes we like to experiment with novel research methods and formats. Today we are introducing ‘AI Impacts Research Bounties‘, in which you get money if you send us inputs to some of our research. To start, we

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Featured Articles

AI Impacts research bounties

We are offering rewards for several inputs to our research, described below. These offers have no specific deadline except where noted. We may modify them or take them down, but will give at least one week’s notice

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Time flies when robots rule the earth

By Katja Grace, 28 July 2015 This week Robin Hanson is finishing off his much anticipated book, The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth. He recently told me that it would be helpful to include

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AI Timelines

Costs of human-level hardware

Computing hardware which is equivalent to the brain – in terms of FLOPS probably costs between $1 x 105 and $3 x 1016, or $2/hour-$700bn/hour. in terms of TEPS probably costs $200M – $7B, or or $4,700 – $170,000/hour