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Steve Potter on neuroscience and AI

By Katja Grace, 13 July 2015 Prof. Steve Potter works at the Laboratory of Neuroengineering in Atlanta, Georgia. I wrote to him after coming across his old article, ‘What can AI get from Neuroscience?’ I wanted to know how neuroscience might contribute to AI

AI Timelines

Conversation with Steve Potter

Posted 13 July 2015 Contents ParticipantsSummaryHow has neuroscience helped AI in the past?Subsumption architectureNeuromorphic engineeringHow is neuroscience contributing to AI today?How is neuroscience likely to help AI in the future?How long will it take to

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New funding for AI Impacts

By Katja Grace, 4 July 2015 AI Impacts has received two grants! We are grateful to the Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) for $8,700 to support work on the project until September 2015, and the Future of Life Institute (FLI)

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Update on all the AI predictions

By Katja Grace, 5 June 2015 For the last little while, we’ve been looking into a dataset of individual AI predictions, collected by MIRI a couple of years ago. We also previously gathered all the surveys about AI predictions that we

AI Timelines

Predictions of Human-Level AI Timelines

Note: This page is out of date. See an up-to-date version of this page on our wiki. Updated 5 June 2015 We know of around 1,300 public predictions of when human-level AI will arrive, of

Accuracy of AI Predictions

Accuracy of AI Predictions

Updated 4 June 2015 It is unclear how informative we should expect expert predictions about AI timelines to be. Individual predictions are undoubtedly often off by many decades, since they disagree with each other. However their aggregate may still be quite informative. The

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Accuracy of AI Predictions

Publication biases toward shorter predictions

We expect predictions that human-level AI will come sooner to be recorded publicly more often, for a few reasons. Public statements are probably more optimistic than surveys because of such effects. The difference appears to be less than

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Accuracy of AI Predictions

Selection bias from optimistic experts

Experts on AI probably systematically underestimate time to human-level AI, due to a selection bias. The same is more strongly true of AGI experts. The scale of such biases appears to be decades. Most public AI predictions

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Why do AGI researchers expect AI so soon?

By Katja Grace, 24 May 2015 People have been predicting when human-level AI will appear for many decades. A few years ago, MIRI made a big, organized collection of such predictions, along with helpful metadata. We are grateful, and just put up a page

AI Timelines

Group Differences in AI Predictions

Updated 9 November 2020 In 2015 AGI researchers appeared to expect human-level AI substantially sooner than other AI researchers. The difference ranges from about five years to at least about sixty years as we move