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AI Timeline Surveys

Klein AGI Survey

Futurist Bruce Klein ran an informal online survey in 2007, asking ‘When will AI surpass human-level intelligence?”. He got 888 responses, from ‘friends’ of unspecified nature. Details The results are shown below, taken from Baum et al,

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Accuracy of AI Predictions

Similarity Between Historical and Contemporary AI Predictions

AI predictions from public statements made before and after 2000 form similar distributions. Such predictions from before 1980 appear to be more optimistic, though predictions from a larger early survey are not. Contents DiscussionSimilarity of predictions over timeMIRI datasetSurvey dataArmstrong

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Clarifying concepts

Human-Level AI

‘Human-level AI’ refers to AI which can reproduce everything a human can do, approximately. Several variants of this concept are worth distinguishing. Contents DetailsVariations in the meaning of ‘human-level AI’Key issuesHuman-level at any cost vs. human-level at