Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036.
Details
Evidence from survey data
In the 2016 ESPAI, participants were asked two relevant questions:
[Top forty] Compose a song that is good enough to reach the US Top 40. The system should output the complete song as an audio file.
[Taylor] Produce a song that is indistinguishable from a new song by a particular artist, e.g. a song that experienced listeners can’t distinguish from a new song by Taylor Swift.
Summary results
Answers were as follows, suggesting these milestones are likely to be reached in ten years, and quite likely to be reached in twenty years.
| 10 years | 20 years | 50 years | |
| Top forty | 27.5% | 50% | 90% |
| Taylor | 60% | 75% | 99% |
| 10% | 50% | 90% | |
| Top forty | 5 years | 10 years | 20 years |
| Taylor | 5 years | 10 years | 20 years |
Distributions of answers to Taylor question
The three figures below show how respondents were spread between different answers over time, for the respondents who answered the ‘fixed years’ framing.
1 Trackback / Pingback