We very roughly estimate that the annual cost of reducing the probability of human extinction by 0.01% is within the range of $1.1 billion to $3.5 trillion. Introduction This article is intended to be usable …
When universities or university departments produce research outputs—such as published papers—they sometimes experience increasing returns to scale, sometimes constant returns to scale, and sometimes decreasing returns to scale. At the level of nations however, R&D …
Collections of humans organized into groups and institutions provide many historical examples of the creation and attempted control of intelligences that routinely outperform individual humans. A preliminary look at the available evidence suggests that individuals …
AI timeline – an expectation about how much time will lapse before important AI events, especially the advent of human-level AI or a similar milestone. The term can also refer to the actual periods of time (which are not yet …
We are offering rewards for several inputs to our research, described below. These offers have no specific deadline except where noted. We may modify them or take them down, but will give at least one week’s notice …
Computing hardware which is equivalent to the brain – in terms of FLOPS probably costs between $1 x 105 and $3 x 1016, or $2/hour-$700bn/hour. in terms of TEPS probably costs $200M – $7B, or or $4,700 – $170,000/hour …
Participants Professor Steve Potter – Associate Professor, Laboratory of NeuroEngineering, Coulter Department of Biomedical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology Katja Grace – Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) Note: These notes were compiled by MIRI and …
It is unclear how informative we should expect expert predictions about AI timelines to be. Individual predictions are undoubtedly often off by many decades, since they disagree with each other. However their aggregate may still be quite informative. The main potential reason we …
The MIRI AI predictions dataset is a collection of public predictions about human-level AI timelines. We edited the original dataset, as described below. Our dataset is available here, and the original here. Interesting features of the dataset …
Traversed Edges Per Second (TEPS) is a benchmark for measuring a computer’s ability to communicate information internally. Given several assumptions, we can also estimate the human brain’s communication performance in terms of TEPS, and use this …
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