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AI Timelines

Costs of human-level hardware

Computing hardware which is equivalent to the brain – in terms of FLOPS probably costs between $1 x 105 and $3 x 1016, or $2/hour-$700bn/hour. in terms of TEPS probably costs $200M – $7B, or or $4,700 – $170,000/hour

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AI Timelines

Conversation with Steve Potter

Participants Professor Steve Potter – Associate Professor, Laboratory of NeuroEngineering, Coulter Department of Biomedical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology Katja Grace – Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) Note: These notes were compiled by MIRI and

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Accuracy of AI Predictions

Accuracy of AI Predictions

It is unclear how informative we should expect expert predictions about AI timelines to be. Individual predictions are undoubtedly often off by many decades, since they disagree with each other. However their aggregate may still be quite informative. The main potential reason we

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AI Timelines

MIRI AI Predictions Dataset

The MIRI AI predictions dataset is a collection of public predictions about human-level AI timelines. We edited the original dataset, as described below. Our dataset is available here, and the original here. Interesting features of the dataset

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AI Timelines

Brain performance in TEPS

We can use Traversed Edges Per Second (TEPS) to measure a computer’s ability to communicate information internally. We can also estimate the human brain’s communication performance in terms of TEPS, and use this to meaningfully compare brains to

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AI Timelines

The cost of TEPS

A billion Traversed Edges Per Second (a GTEPS) can be bought for around $0.26/hour via a powerful supercomputer, including hardware and energy costs only. We do not know if GTEPS can be bought more cheaply elsewhere. We estimate that

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AI Timelines

Trends in the cost of computing

Computing power available per dollar has probably increased by a factor of ten roughly every four years over the last quarter of a century (measured in FLOPS or MIPS). Over the past 6-8 years, the rate has been slower:

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Featured Articles

Research topic: Hardware, software and AI

This is the first in a sequence of articles outlining research which could help forecast AI development. Interpretation Concrete research projects are in boxes. [icon icon=”216|ss-air” size=”small” align=”” style=”style1″ color=”#f99a2c” color_hover=”” bg_color=”” bg_opacity=”1″ bg_opacity_hover=”1″ bg_color_hover=”” border_color=”” border_opacity=”1″ enable_crease=”no”]5 [icon icon=”97|ss-air” size=”small”

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Featured Articles

List of multipolar research projects

This list currently consists of research projects suggested at the Multipolar AI workshop we held on January 26 2015. Relatively concrete projects are marked [concrete]. These are more likely to already include specific questions to answer and feasible methods to answer them

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AI Timelines

Discontinuous progress investigation

We are collecting cases of discontinuous technological progress, to inform our understanding of whether artificial intelligence research is likely to undergo such a discontinuity. This page details our investigation. Details Motivations We are interested in whether artificial intelligence research