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AI Timelines

Human-level hardware timeline

We estimate that ‘human-level hardware’— hardware able to perform as many computations per second as a human brain, at a similar cost to a human brain—has a 30% chance of having already occurred, a 45%

AI Timelines

Recent trend in the cost of computing

The cheapest hardware prices (for single precision FLOPS/$) appear to be falling by around an order of magnitude every 10-16 years. This data does not include TPUs, which are likely to be the cheapest, but

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Global computing capacity

Computing capacity worldwide was probably around 2 x 1020 – 1.5 x 1021 FLOPS, at around the end of 2015. Support We are not aware of recent, plausible estimates for hardware capacity. Vipul Naik estimated global hardware capacity in February

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Costs of human-level hardware

Computing hardware which is equivalent to the brain – in terms of FLOPS probably costs between $1 x 105 and $3 x 1016, or $2/hour-$700bn/hour. in terms of TEPS probably costs $200M – $7B, or or $4,700 – $170,000/hour

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Brain performance in FLOPS

Five credible estimates of brain computing capacity in terms of FLOPS by others that we are aware of are spread across the range from 3 x 1013 to 1025 FLOPS. The median estimate is 1018 FLOPS. Our own estimate of

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AI Timelines

Index of articles about hardware

Hardware in terms of computing capacity (FLOPS and MIPS) Brain performance in FLOPS Current FLOPS prices Trends in the cost of computing Wikipedia history of GFLOPS costs Hardware in terms of communication capacity (TEPS) Brain performance in TEPS (includes the

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Cost of human-level information storage

It costs roughly $300-$3000 to buy enough storage space to store all information contained by a human brain. Support The human brain probably stores around 10-100TB of data. Data storage costs around $30/TB. Thus it costs roughly $300-$3000 to buy

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Costs of information storage

Cheap secondary memory appears to cost around $0.03/GB in 2015. In the long run the price has declined by an order of magnitude roughly every 4.6 years. However the rate has declined so much that prices haven’t substantially dropped since 2011 (in 2015). Support Cheap secondary memory appears to