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AI Timelines

Human-level hardware timeline

We estimate that ‘human-level hardware’— hardware able to perform as many computations per second as a human brain, at a similar cost to a human brain—has a 30% chance of having already occurred, a 45%

AI Timelines

2017 trend in the cost of computing

The cheapest hardware prices (for single precision FLOPS/$) appear to be falling by around an order of magnitude every 10-16 years. This rate is slower than the trend of FLOPS/$ observed over the past quarter century,

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Hardware and AI Timelines

Price-performance trend in top supercomputers

A top supercomputer can perform a GFLOP for around $3, in 2017. The price of performance in top supercomputers continues to fall, as of 2016. Details TOP500.org maintains a list of top supercomputers and their

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AI Timelines

Global computing capacity

[This page is out of date and its contents may have been inaccurate in 2015, in light of new information that we are yet to integrate.] Computing capacity worldwide was probably around 2 x 1020 – 1.5

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AI Timelines

Costs of human-level hardware

Computing hardware which is equivalent to the brain – in terms of FLOPS probably costs between $1 x 105 and $3 x 1016, or $2/hour-$700bn/hour. in terms of TEPS probably costs $200M – $7B, or or $4,700 – $170,000/hour

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AI Timelines

Brain performance in FLOPS

The computing power needed to replicate the human brain’s relevant activities has been estimated by various authors, with answers ranging from 1012 to 1028 FLOPS. Details Notes We have not investigated the brain’s performance in FLOPS in

AI Timelines

Index of articles about hardware

Hardware in terms of computing capacity (FLOPS and MIPS) Brain performance in FLOPS Current FLOPS prices Trends in the cost of computing Wikipedia history of GFLOPS costs Hardware in terms of communication capacity (TEPS) Brain performance in TEPS (includes the

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AI Timelines

Cost of human-level information storage

It costs roughly $300-$3000 to buy enough storage space to store all information contained by a human brain. Support The human brain probably stores around 10-100TB of data. Data storage costs around $30/TB. Thus it costs roughly $300-$3000 to buy

AI Timelines

Costs of information storage

Posted 23 July 2015 Cheap secondary memory appears to cost around $0.03/GB in 2015. In the long run the price has declined by an order of magnitude roughly every 4.6 years. However the rate has declined so much that prices haven’t substantially dropped since 2011 (in 2015).