Featured Articles – AI Impacts

2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI

Collected data and analysis from a large survey of machine learning researchers.

AI Vignettes Project

An ongoing effort to write concrete plausible future histories of AI development and its social impacts.

Fiction relevant to AI futurism

A list of stories potentially relevant to thinking about the development of advanced AI, including both those intended as futurism and those intended as entertainment.

How energy efficient are human-engineered flight designs relative to natural ones?

Nature is responsible for the most energy efficient flight, according to an investigation of albatrosses, butterflies and nine different human-engineered flying machines.

Time for AI to cross the human performance range in ImageNet image classification

Computer image classification performance took 3 years to go from untrained human level to trained human level

Surveys on fractional progress towards HLAI

How long until human-level performance, if we naively extrapolate progress since researchers joined their subfields?

Precedents for economic n-year doubling before 4n-year doubling

Does the economy ever double without having first doubled four times slower? Yes, but not since 3000BC.

Resolutions of mathematical conjectures over time

The time-to-proof for past mathematical problems currently remembered as notable is exponentially distributed with a half life of around 100 years.

Preliminary survey of prescient actions

In a short search, we did not find clear examples of ‘prescient actions’—specific efforts to address severe and complex problems decades ahead of time and in the absence of broader scientific concern, experience with analogous problems…

2019 recent trends in GPU price per FLOPS

Published 25 March, 2020 We estimate that in recent years, GPU prices have fallen at rates that would yield an order of magnitude over roughly: Details GPUs (graphics processing units) are specialized electronic circuits originally