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Time for AI to cross the human performance range in chess

Computer chess took around 50 years to go from beginner level to superhuman level.

Surveys on fractional progress towards HLAI

How long until human-level performance, if we naively extrapolate progress since researchers joined their subfields?

2019 recent trends in Geekbench score per CPU price

From 2006 – 2020, Geekbench score per CPU price has grown by around 16% a year, for rates that would yield an order of magnitude over roughly 16 years.

Precedents for economic n-year doubling before 4n-year doubling

Does the economy ever double without having first doubled four times slower? Yes, but not since 3000BC.

Resolutions of mathematical conjectures over time

The time-to-proof for past mathematical problems currently remembered as notable is exponentially distributed with a half life of around 100 years.

Trends in DRAM price per gigabyte

The price of a gigabyte of DRAM has fallen by about a factor of ten every 5 years from 1957 to 2020. Since 2010, the price has fallen much more slowly, at a rate that

Preliminary survey of prescient actions

In a short search, we did not find clear examples of ‘prescient actions’—specific efforts to address severe and complex problems decades ahead of time and in the absence of broader scientific concern, experience with analogous problems…

Interviews on plausibility of AI safety by default

This is a list of interviews on the plausibility of AI safety by default. Background AI Impacts conducted interviews with several thinkers on AI safety in 2019 as part of a project exploring arguments for

2019 recent trends in GPU price per FLOPS

Published 25 March, 2020 We estimate that in recent years, GPU prices have fallen at rates that would yield an order of magnitude over roughly: Details GPUs (graphics processing units) are specialized electronic circuits originally

Incomplete case studies of discontinuous progress

Published 7 Feb 2020 This is a list of potential cases of discontinuous technological progress that we have investigated partially or not at all. List In the course of investigating cases of potentially discontinuous technological